P0059 - Analysis of Mortality Trends in Acute Pancreatitis in the United States, 1999-2020: An Analysis of CDC WONDER Database

Muhammad Ali Khaqan, MD¹, Muhammad Shahzil, MD², Maha Sajjad, MBBS³, Muhammad Tayyab Anwar, MD¹, Muhammad Ammar Ur Rahman, MBBS³, Jawad Ahmed, MBBS³, Luqman Munir, MBBS³, Amna Khalid, MBBS^3
1John H. Stroger, Jr. Hospital of Cook County, Chicago, IL; ²Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Hershey, PA; ³King Edward Medical University, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan

Introduction: Acute pancreatitis (AP), the acute inflammation of the pancreas, accounts for about 300,000 emergency cases annually in the United States, making it one of the most common gastrointestinal disorders resulting in hospital admission. Our study aims to assess the temporal trends in AP-related mortality among US citizens by age, gender, and race.

Methods: We used the CDC WONDER database to determine age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) of AP in the US population from 1999-2020. AAMR per 1,000,000 people was extracted. Trends in AAMR were analyzed using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Using the Monte Carlo Permutation test, the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated, and the parametric method was used to estimate 95% confidence intervals. A parallelism test was applied, and non-parallel results were considered significant with a P-value < 0.05.

Results: Acute pancreatitis accounted for 106,406 deaths in Whites and 17,447 in Blacks from 1999 to 2020. Overall AAMR showed a downward trend with an AAPC of -1.23 (p=0.01). This downward AAMR trend was mostly seen in the 85+ age group (APC -3.61) and 75-84 age group (APC -3.34). However, there was a sharp increase in mortality rates between 2018-2020 with an APC of 11.84 (p=0.04). During this time, AAMR increased in the 15-74 years age group, with the highest change in the 15-24 years group (APC 45.36), followed by the 25-34 years group (APC 31.41) and 35-44 years group (APC 30.16). During 2018-2020, Blacks showed the highest increase in AAMR (APC 24.38) followed by Whites and Asians. Although between 1999-2018, Blacks showed a significant decrease compared to whites (APC -3.61 vs -2.29). Females exhibited a moderate decline compared to males (APC -2.93 vs -2.29) from 1999 to 2018. Males showed a much greater increase in mortality as compared to females during 2018-2020. Overall, the mortality rate was the highest among the 75+ age group, Blacks, and males. Most deaths occurred in inpatient medical facilities.

Discussion: Acute pancreatitis is a medical emergency mainly affecting the older population. Although overall mortality rates have been decreasing since 1999, the recent surge during 2018-2020 especially in the younger population is concerning and requires further investigation to identify the cause. Also, the disproportionate mortality trends in the Black and White populations should be examined.



Disclosures:


Muhammad Ali Khaqan, MD¹, Muhammad Shahzil, MD², Maha Sajjad, MBBS³, Muhammad Tayyab Anwar, MD¹, Muhammad Ammar Ur Rahman, MBBS³, Jawad Ahmed, MBBS³, Luqman Munir, MBBS³, Amna Khalid, MBBS³. P0059 - Analysis of Mortality Trends in Acute Pancreatitis in the United States, 1999-2020: An Analysis of CDC WONDER Database, ACG 2024 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Philadelphia, PA: American College of Gastroenterology.