Ashley Robinson, DO1, Eli D. Ehrenpreis, MD, FACG2 1Advocate Lutheran General, Chicago, IL; 2E2Bio Consultants, Evanston, IL
Introduction: Previous studies have shown that pancreatic cancer rates have been steadily increasing over the past two decades and have found a disproportionate increase in young females. We examined sex and age-specific temporal trends of pancreatic cancer incidence from 2000-2021, specifically analyzing differences between ethnicities to determine if this increase is consistently observed among each group.
Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program was used to assess pancreatic cancer incidence trends from 2000 to 2021. Curve fitting of incidence data versus time using an exponential growth model was performed using Prism (GraphPad, San Diego, CA).
Results: Among females of all ethnicities aged 15-39 and 40-64, the annual percent change (APC) in incidence between 2000-2021 was 5.1% and 1.3% respectively. Males of the same age groups increased 2.7% and 0.7%. In Hispanic (any race) persons aged 15 to 39, the APC was 6.4% in females. The model demonstrated exponential growth for pancreatic cancer in this group of young Hispanic women, (R²=0.739) and predicted the doubling time for the rate of pancreatic cancer in this population was 10.7 years (95% CI=8.1-15.3 years), (Figure 1).
Discussion: Since 2000, pancreatic cancer incidence rates have been increasing overall, with a more rapid increase in females. Per our initial evaluation, an exponential growth rate for this cancer is occurring in Hispanic females under the age of 40. Further insights related to this phenomenon are pending.
Figure: Figure 1. SEER Pancreatic cancer rates in Hispanic (any race) males and females, 15-39. Red: Females; Blue: Males
Note: The table for this abstract can be viewed in the ePoster Gallery section of the ACG 2024 ePoster Site or in The American Journal of Gastroenterology's abstract supplement issue, both of which will be available starting October 27, 2024.
Disclosures:
Ashley Robinson indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Eli Ehrenpreis: E2Bio Life Sciences – Intellectual Property/Patents, Owner/Ownership Interest, Stock-privately held company.
Ashley Robinson, DO1, Eli D. Ehrenpreis, MD, FACG2. P1712 - Age and Ethnicity Based Analysis of Increasing Pancreatic Cancer Incidence in Young Women, 2000-2021, ACG 2024 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Philadelphia, PA: American College of Gastroenterology.
