East Carolina University Brody School of Medicine Greenville, NC
Award: Presidential Poster Award
Hassam Ali, MD1, Waqas Rasheed, MD2, Vishali Moond, MD3, Dushyant S. Dahiya, MD4, Manesh Kumar Gangwani, MD5, Umar Hayat, MD6, Amna Iqbal, MD7, Shiza sarfraz, MD1, Fouad Jaber, MD8, Rashmi Advani, MD9 1East Carolina University Brody School of Medicine, Greenville, NC; 2University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY; 3Saint Peter's University Hospital, New Brunswick, NJ; 4The University of Kansas School of Medicine, Kansas City, KS; 5University of Toledo, Toledo, OH; 6Geisinger Wyoming Valley Medical Center, Wilkes-Barre, PA; 7University of Toledo Medical Center, Toledo, OH; 8University of Missouri - Kansas City School of Medicine, Kansas City, MO; 9Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY
Introduction: Obesity is a growing public health crisis, particularly among young adults. This study projects mortality rates with focus on obesity as the underlying cause in the United States among young adults, providing a comprehensive outlook on future trends.
Methods: Data were obtained from the CDC Wide‐ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) multiple causes of death database, focusing on the underlying cause of death as obesity (ICD-10 codes E66.0-E66.9) for young adults aged 18-39 from 1999-2035. Temporal trends in crude mortality rate (CMR) were assessed via Joinpoint software. Future mortality rates were forecasted using an optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
Results: Between 1999 and 2023, there were 19,451 deaths with obesity as the underlying cause of death (males 60.58%) for young adults aged 18-39. Overall, the CMR increased from 0.5/100,000 in 1999 to 1.1/100,000 in 2023, showing an annual percent change (APC) of 3.13% (95% CI 2.45% to 3.85%) (Figure 1). The forecasted rate for 2024 was 1.3/100,000 (95% CI: 1.09–1.5), with a projected increase to 1.51/100,000 (95% CI: 1.21–1.81) by 2035 with an APC of 1.30% (95% CI 0.35% to 2.31%). For females, CMR increased from 0.4/100,000 in 1999 to 0.8/100,000 in 2023, showing an APC of 2.44% (95% CI 1.71% to 3.18%); The forecasted rate for 2024 was 0.83/100,000 (95% CI: 0.69–0.97), with a projected increase to 1.13/100,000 (95% CI: 0.89–1.30) by 2035 with an APC of 2.81% (95% CI 2.74% to 2.87%). For males, CMR increased from 0.6/100,000 in 1999 to 1.4/100,000 in 2023, showing an APC of 3.59% (95% CI 2.78% to 4.42%); The forecasted rate for 2024 was 1.28/100,000 (95% CI: 1.12–1.44), with a projected increase to 1.80/100,000 (95% CI: 1.43–2.08) by 2035 with an APC of 3.16% (95% CI 3.12% to 3.20%)
Discussion: The study highlights a concerning upward trend in obesity-related mortality rates among young adults, specially males, in the United States over the past two decades, with projections indicating continued growth through 2035. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted public health interventions and policies aimed at mitigating the impact of obesity, particularly among young adults. Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4 was used to make figures for this study.
Figure: Actual and projected rates of obesity-related mortality up to 2035. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence intervals (Total and stratified by sex)
Disclosures:
Hassam Ali indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Waqas Rasheed indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Vishali Moond indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Dushyant Dahiya indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Manesh Kumar Gangwani indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Umar Hayat indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Amna Iqbal indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Shiza sarfraz indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Fouad Jaber indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Rashmi Advani indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Hassam Ali, MD1, Waqas Rasheed, MD2, Vishali Moond, MD3, Dushyant S. Dahiya, MD4, Manesh Kumar Gangwani, MD5, Umar Hayat, MD6, Amna Iqbal, MD7, Shiza sarfraz, MD1, Fouad Jaber, MD8, Rashmi Advani, MD9. P1449 - The Weight of the Future: Machine Learning Projections for Obesity Mortality in Young Americans (1999-2035), ACG 2024 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Philadelphia, PA: American College of Gastroenterology.
