P0040 - Identifying Predictors for the Evolution of Acute Pancreatitis Into Recurrent and Chronic Forms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Endre Botond Gagyi, MD, Edina Tari, MD, Mahmoud Obeidat, MD, Szilard Vancsa, MD, PhD, Peter Hegyi, MD, PhD, Balint Eross, MD, PhD
Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Budapest, Hungary

Introduction: The transition from acute pancreatitis (AP) to recurrent (RAP) and chronic (CP) forms poses significant clinical challenges.

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify risk factors associated with this progression.

Methods: Following the protocol registration on PROSPERO (CRD42022368931), we searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases up to December 19th, 2023, for studies examining risk factors for the evolution of AP into RAP or CP. Pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using the random effects model. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I² statistic. The risk of bias assessment was performed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool.

Results: A total of 124 articles were included in the meta–analysis, and several risk factors were identified for the progression of AP into RAP and CP. We found the following risk factors of AP recurrence: male gender, smoking, alcoholic etiology, hypertriglyceridemia, diabetes mellitus, pseudocyst, etc. The pooled OR for the male gender was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.31-1.62, I²=25%), for smoking was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.22-1.71, I²=57%), for alcoholic etiology was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.45-2.14, I²=78%), for hypertriglyceridemia was 2.48 (95% CI: 2.16-2.83, I²=9%), for diabetes mellitus was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.21-1.75, I²=0%), for pseudocyst was 2.23 (95% CI: 1.61-3.12, I²=0%). We also found risk factors of RAP progression into CP. The risk of bias was moderate in the majority of the included studies.

Discussion: These findings suggest that addressing modifiable risk factors might be key in preventing the progression of pancreatitis


Disclosures:


Endre Botond Gagyi, MD, Edina Tari, MD, Mahmoud Obeidat, MD, Szilard Vancsa, MD, PhD, Peter Hegyi, MD, PhD, Balint Eross, MD, PhD. P0040 - Identifying Predictors for the Evolution of Acute Pancreatitis Into Recurrent and Chronic Forms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis., ACG 2024 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Philadelphia, PA: American College of Gastroenterology.