Kyaw Min Tun, DO1, Renuka Verma, MD2, Kamleshun Ramphul, MD3, Banreet Dhindsa, MD4 1Creighton University School of Medicine, Las Vegas, NV; 2University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV; 3Independent Researcher, Triolet, Pamplemousses, Mauritius; 4NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY
Introduction: Asian American/Pacific Islanders(AAPI) represent around 7.1% of the US population. The American Cancer Society recently reported that the overall incidence of colorectal cancer(CRC) among older adults is on a decline. We aim to evaluate the trends among AAPI and propose a predictive estimate for 2030.
Methods: Data of AAPI of ages 65 and older was queried from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC-WONDER) database. The age-adjusted rates(per 100,000) of CRC among AAPI were extracted. Joinpoint was used to estimate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Using R-studio, a time series forecast was developed to project the incidence rate(per 100,000) of CRC among AAPI up to the year 2030. Ljung-Box test helped assess the model.
Results: Between 1999-2018, the APC was -3.2(95%CI -3.5 to -2.6, p=0.031), and a further drop was seen between 2018-2020(APC -9.1, 95% CI -13.1 to -4.0, p< 0.01), with an overall AAPC of -3.8(95% CI -4.2 to -3.4, p< 0.01). Among AAPI males, the APC between 1999-2018 was -3.2(95%CI -3.5 to -0.0, p=0.0499), and between 2018-2020 it was -8.6(95% CI -12.8 to -3.5, p< 0.01) and their AAPC was -3.7(95% CI -4.1 to -3.0, p< 0.01). AAPI females expressed an APC of -2.3(95% CI -3.2 to 1.9, p=0.086) between 1999-2008 that was not statistically significant, but an APC of -4.3(95% CI -5.8 to -3.8, p< 0.01) was noted between 2008-2020, with an AAPC of -3.4(95% CI -3.9 to -2.9, p< 0.01)(Figure 1). Our predictive model further estimates that the incidence rate of CRC will continue to decline and by 2030 it will be 53.1(19.7-86.6)(vs. 109 in 2020) among males, while it will be 36.9(22.9-51.0) among females (vs. 74.1 in 2020), and the overall rate will be 43.9(26.1-61.7)(vs. 89.4 in 2020) among all AAPI(Figure 2).
Discussion: Our study confirms the declining trend in the incidence of CRC among AAPI and a continuous trend by 2030 with a lower incidence. It is vital to continue the preventive measures and sensitization campaigns to promote healthy lifestyle changes, including diet, smoking and alcohol cessation, and screening to remove any early precancerous lesions.
Figure: Changes in incidence (per 100,000) of colorectal cancer among AAPI and a predictive model
Disclosures:
Kyaw Min Tun indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Renuka Verma indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Kamleshun Ramphul indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Banreet Dhindsa indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Kyaw Min Tun, DO1, Renuka Verma, MD2, Kamleshun Ramphul, MD3, Banreet Dhindsa, MD4. P3842 - Incidence of Colorectal Cancer Among Asian American/Pacific Islanders: A Perspective From 1999-2020 and a Predictive Model to 2030, ACG 2024 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Philadelphia, PA: American College of Gastroenterology.
